A Comprehensive Study of Civil War: Patterns and Real Cases The history of ethnic civil war consists of the ethnic fragmentation that appeared along the social path to globalization. Over time, man has allowed a complete study of the variables and motivations in an attempt to theorize a historical model of civil war. Two major models, one built by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, and the other by James Fearon and David Laitin, provided hypotheses about the causes of civil war based on social, economic, and political measurements. However, as Horowitz states, "a bloody phenomenon cannot be explained with a bloodless theory", civil conflict can never be concluded according to a certain scheme; despite the general trend, random events such as natural disasters and regional factors such as corruption would also diversify the scope of warfare idiosyncratically. War models are essential to demonstrate correlations between variables associated with the theory and war risk. The econometric model built by Collier and Hoeffler, for example, provides a fair measurement of war by demonstrating opportunity as a source of conflict. It includes predominant variables such as primary commodity exports, GDP per capita, GDP per growth and population. In most cases, low GDP per capita and slow growth rate increase the risk of war because they provide a low opportunity cost for rebellion. This corresponds to the phenomenon that many of the countries that experienced civil war in the period 1960-1999 were poor developing countries such as Congo, Sudan and Zimbabwe. Yugoslavia also suffered an economic collapse in 1989, shortly before the outbreak of wars in 1992. An overall poor economy generates social tensions, leading to war. Meanwhile, a high dependence on Pr...... middle of paper ......lict-1970-2008-2/.Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler. "Greed and Resentment in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563-95. doi:10.1093/oep/gpf064.Couttenier, Mathieu and Raphael Soubeyran. “Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Paris School of Economics, July 2011. Accessed 9 June 2014. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. "Ethnicity, insurgency and civil war". American Political Science Review 97, no. 01 (2003): 75. doi:10.1017/S0003055403000534.Horowitz, Donald L. “Chapter 3.” In Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 140. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985. Sambanis, Nicholas. “Using Case Studies to Expand Civil War Economic Models.” Perspectives on Politics 2, no. 02 (2004). doi:10.1017/S1537592704040149.Sudetic, Chuck. "Chapter 6." In Blood and Vengeance: A Family's Story of the Bosnian War, 75. New York: W. W. Norton, 1998.